If you try values of the number of bets, you will find that the tipster needs 1781 bets with a yield of 5% to verify that the probability of obtaining this yield by chance is 1%. How many bets does a tipster with that stats need to verify that the probability of obtaining this yield by chance is “small”? Small is, for example, 1%. The results show that the probability is… 29.3% Almost one of every 3 tipsters could have obtained this yield just by chance. The Average Bet Size does not affect the result of the p-value, so you can let a value of 1.įor example, if a series of 100 bets at average weighted odds of 1.83 (11/6) shows an actual yield of 5%, which is the probability of obtaining this yield just by chance? (assuming that the long term yield is 0% and the payout is close to 100%, as the tipster can choose the best odds from several bookmakers, or the bookmaker margin is small). The p-value depends on the Number of Bets, the actual Yield of the series of bets, and the Average Weighted Odds. The calculation of this p-value is explained by Joseph Buchdahl in his blog articles “ Testing your betting model” and “ How good are betting tipsters?“. Which is the probability of obtaining the yield ‘Y’ if the long-term expected yield is zero? A zero yield means that there is no skill when placing the bets. The p-value calculated in the PVALUE_EMDD_BANKROLL.xlsm spreadsheet answers the question: PVALUE_EMDD_BANKROLL.xlsm (update 8/7/20) P-Value P-Value and Expected Maximum Drawdown Spreadsheet Expected Maximum Drawdown: The average drawdown of a series of bets.P-Value: The probability of a sports betting yield being a result of luck.In this entry you can find an Excel spreadsheet to calculate the values of:
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Like when my gut was telling me, ‘You probably shouldn’t let that slide, what that person just said,’ or if you’re feeling a certain way about what an energy is like and how that is affecting your performance. “I think that the thing that I always go back to on that one is that I think I should have followed my instincts more. She also spoke about it in an interview with Collider. And on both of my bad experiences, the movies were 95 percent men and I was the only woman in the movie." But there was never a time that I felt, 'This is happening because I'm a woman.' Where with the male directors, it 100 percent was only happening with me it was a power dynamic thing. Appearing on The Howard Stern Show on SiriusXM, Blunt shot down rumors she's been cast as the FF's resident. And was it not the greatest work experience? Sure. However, we do know one thing - Emily Blunt won't be playing Invisible Woman. Have I not gotten along with a female director? Absolutely. 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Kids can be celebrated for their passion, their grit, their dedication. The focus is on connection and meaning, not cultivating a walking, talking humblebrag who’s never known what it is to live without one’s achievements on display. These parents see their child’s gifts as a way to ground their children in the world, as opposed to a way to help them rise up above it. Hulbert said stories about parents of autistic savants are helpful in understanding how this works. Striking the right note of enthusiastic support with a gifted child requires parents to follow the children’s lead. “The chances are great that it’s all not going to work out the way you expect.” “Whether or not a child breaks milestones early is not much of an augury of anything,” Hulbert said, explaining that parents should support their kids but keep expectations at a minimum – and avoid projecting their own desires onto their kids. 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The goal is to keep them engaged.Īnn Hulbert, author of “ Off the Charts: The Hidden Lives and Lessons of American Prodigies,” advises parents to be aware of the difference between supporting gifted children to create their own story and writing their story for them. Maybe this happens through an app, a local club or weekly chats about geometry or poetry at the kitchen table. If a school isn’t able to meet a child’s educational needs, Islas said, parents should seek out alternative forms of enrichment. This means using different strategies that are sometimes above the norm for a student’s age group,” Islas said. What happens when you give your kids a 'Yes Day'Įducators “are recognizing that people come to school at different levels, and we have an obligation to help them all achieve at their optimal levels. Shutterstock ID 281486129 Job: - FIREMN/Shutterstock A high-performing child needs this just as much as her peers, he explained, and research shows that she will suffer if she doesn’t receive it.Ĭute child with Dandelion flowers in spring meadow. “We know kids will not grow intellectually and cognitively if they are not stretched a little bit and supported with scaffolding to get there,” Islas said. René Islas, executive director of the National Association for Gifted Children, said it would be a mistake for parents to let their children pursue their gifts on their own. Should we leave these children alone with their gifts and talents, allowing them to pursue their interests on their own terms? Or should we intervene? But it can be a bit harder to navigate when a child is gifted.įew among us want to be accused of raising a special snowflake, but sometimes, those snowflakes reveal themselves as a little special. This is clearly the case with children with physical or mental disabilities or emotional disorders. Why extracurriculars make parents miserableĬhildren need freedom, yes, but they also need us, their ostensibly wiser guardians, to pay attention to their particular needs and help them meet them. In the initial days, Alfred was portrayed more as a comedic character who stumbled his way through solving crimes by accident. Later, the character and his backstory was heavily revised by Bill Finger. It is generally recognized that writer Don Cameron came up with the character along with Artists Bob Kane and Jerry Robinson. He was introduced in 1943 as part of Batman #16. Apart from that, he also plays a vital role in covering for Bruce Wayne so that Wayne could maintain the public persona of the billionaire trust-fund kid. He of course, knows that Bruce Wayne is Batman, and is often provides vital tactical, intelligence, and medical support to Batman. He is the only member of the bat-family who uses a gun to defend himself (and others), and this is tolerated by Bruce Wayne (his preferred weapon being a shotgun). In some stories, he was portrayed as a retired actor, and some as a former memeber of the british special forces. He is one of the most popular characters in the Batman universe. After the death of Thomas and Martha Wayne, he became Bruce's legal gaurdian till the time that he was a minor.Īlfred is from England, and is often portrayed as a caring, loyal, intelligent confidante to Bruce Wayne, with a penchant for wisecracks and witty comebacks. Who is he? Why has he proved so special to Batman and his allies? IntroductionĪlfred Thaddeus Crane Pennyworth is Bruce Wayne's Butler. Alfred Pennyworth Butler, Actor, Researcher, Advisor, Confidante and Father Figure.Īlfred has proved to be the most important person in Bruce Wayne's life. For now I’ll keep buying it when I need a little boost during the day. I really wish they could figure out how to make this without hydrogenated oils, though it’s pretty far down on the list of ingredients and doesn’t show up on the nutrition part. The packaging is good, there are two little pieces in a tray and sealed in a the plastic packaging so they stay intact and are easy to slide out. If it only came in dark chocolate I might be in heaven. If anything, the milk chocolate is a little sweet, but the salt on the pretzels and the slight saltiness of the peanut butter (which tastes like the center of a Reese’s. (Maybe I got that order wrong, it’s hard to tell.) The proportions are solid and the pretzel has got a great salty kick. It’s got a pretzel center covered with peanut butter then a layer of caramel, a few chopped peanuts and then it’s all enrobed in milk chocolate. Hershey’s is dang close with the Take 5 bar. I quickly bargained with the other people in our party for theirs. On a visit to the Chocolate Homeworld, er, sorry, Chocolate World in Hershey on New Year’s Day, this was the sample they gave us at the end of the ride. In my world it’d be a super turtle with a pretzel base, chewy caramel then pecans all covered in semi-sweet chocolate. It’d be a great mix of simple carbs, fat and protein so as not to overwhelm the bloodstream with too much sugar. If I were to create the perfect candy bar, a great snack bar that would give me energy and taste good, it would contain the following: chocolate, pretzels, caramel and nuts. Front desk was totally ineffective and took three days of me asking them for developments to even address the problem. The servers were absolutely brilliant, but it felt like anyone above that station was just disinterested and less than helpful. Shout out to Jonah, Corey, and Angel for really doing a great job!… I was surprised to learn later that the spa was very booked that day - the way that the staff managed the flow of clients made us feel like we were among a limited few who had been granted access. Every single person we encountered was very professional, well trained, friendly, and helpful without being pushy in the least. As nice as the facilities are, the spa staff are really what made the place shine. I was very happy with our visit to the spa. In addition, the staff were super helpful in setting up other services that we hadn't booked in advance, but were available same day. While we were hanging out in the lounge, the staff that checked us in came by regularly with offers of water/drinks and food, and they were very accommodating of our dietary requests. I really liked the way the lounge was set up, with semi-private areas and privacy curtains. After the massage we hung out in the relaxing lounge, which faces west with views of the Hudson. The hour went fast, and I really wished I had booked a longer session. My massage was with Kaysla - a fantastic therapist, who listened carefully to my requests and pointed out a few areas of tightness that she worked out with ease. The locker rooms were also super super clean - staff were constantly moving through to make sure the locker room stayed spotless. A quick check in, confirmation of services, and you're taken back to the nicely appointed locker rooms to change. Its an incredibly well-run facility from the moment you enter the spa area, you're warmly greeted and taken care of by friendly front desk spa staff. I knew about the hotel, gym, and pool, but didn't know there was such a great spa facility in the hotel as well. My friend and I got massages and spent a few hours at the Equinox Spa in Hudson Yards. 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